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ENVIRONMENT CANADA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS

TORNADO RISK OVERVIEW – STORM PREDICTION CENTER

SPC DAY 1 TORNADO OUTLOOK

The probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. If a hatched area is included in the image, which is only done with probabilities of 10 percent or higher, strong tornadoes are more of a concern than normal. 

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2%, Marginal | 5%, Slight | 10%, Enhanced (hatch = EF2+ greater risk) | 15%, Moderate (as above) | 30%, Moderate (if no hatch) | 30%+, High (hatch = EF2+ greater risk)

CURRENT OUTLOOK AREAS, RADAR, AND CONVECTIVE WATCHES

THE DAYS AHEAD...

Organized risk of severe storms begins with “marginal” (MRGL). Levels increase from there to “slight” (SLGT), then “enhanced” (ENH), next is “moderate” (MDT), and finally “high” (HIGH).

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Watches, either tornado (red) or severe thunderstorm (blue), indicate that storms are likely to pose the highlighted threat.

 

Tornadoes also occur in severe thunderstorm watches fairly frequently.

SPC DAY 2 TORNADO OUTLOOK

INFRARED SATELLITE

SURFACE FEATURES

A surface feature analysis often tells the basic story of any weather setup.

 

High pressure? Probably sunny. Low pressure? Probably stormy.

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